THE BLACK DEATH – YEAR OF THE RAT – BLACK SWAN EVENT

During the Black Death pandemic in the middle of the fourteenth century upwards of two hundred million people may have succumbed to the virus.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Black Death is thought to have originated in the dry plains of Central Asia or East Asia, where it traveled along the Silk Road, reaching Crimea by 1343. From there, it was most likely carried by fleas living on the black rats that traveled on all merchant ships, spreading throughout the Mediterranean Basin and Europe.

The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe’s population. In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century. It took 200 years for the world population to recover to its previous level. The plague recurred as outbreaks in Europe until the 19th century.

The plague originated in Wuhan China, a city of 11 million people. Effectively the city has been on lock down. Those confirmed cases around the world, mostly resulted in a visit to Wuhan. It remains to be seen what effect this will have on the world economies. As it is, China’s economy is in a precarious situation. A one or two percent decrease in GDP would have a grave effect on those who are put out of work.

So far over 2000 cases have been reported with over 100 deaths. Statistics say that more than 11,000 have been affected

Source: The Centre for Health Protection of the Department of Health of Hong KongCenters for Disease Control and Prevention
Credit: Map by Daniel Wood/NPR. Research by Susie Cummings and Ayda Pourasad/NPR.

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