Economists can drive one crazy. Their forecasts are all over the place. There is no question that most fall into the category of weathermen, 50% right, 50% wrong. Very few have a track record to rest their laurels on. But in any field, there are those who stand out from their peers. Mohamed Aly El-Erian for one, has his act together. In the investment arena, Sam Zell is the most prolific, He stands tall. However, we would be remiss to not mention a man for all seasons, Robert Friedland.
To those who have never heard of him, we bring you a ray of sunshine on his career. Mr. Friedland, an explorer extraordinaire, has found the greatest mineral discoveries the world has ever known. Voisey Bay, Oyu Tolgoi, and Fort Knox. However, Mr. Friedland has put two more feathers in his cap. His company, Ivanhoe Mines, is in the midst of ramping up the 2nd or 3rd largest copper discovery in the word, Kamoa-Kakula. But top that off he is anticipating the final build of Ivanplats, the largest equivalent gold discovery on earth with over 200 million ounces. Mr. Friedland anticipated the world’s rush to green energy more than fifteen years ago. He is today’s Nostradamus.
The aforementioned gentlemen stand heads and shoulders above the rest. Google them all – you will not be disappointed.
But back to basics regarding future forecasts. Understanding what they have concluded as a whole concerning the future of America’s economy consists of a bizarre web of deceit. For instance, at first sight, one would have to demur to the oldest scenario in the world. A guy jumps out of a fifty story building, as he descends, the occupants on each floor wave to him, he smiles and waves back. Not thinking of what awaits at any moment in time before he finally hits bottom. Yes, BOTTOM. This illustration is sad, but funny at the same time. Empirical evidence of the track record of most economists can be described in one word. Splatter!
Today, we see the economic prognosticators, the talking heads if you will, ubiquitously agreeing on America’s economic future. You see them on all media channels, professor’s in college classrooms, print, social media and even in bars, talking up their theorems. Most are from the Keynesian school of economics. Are all wrong or all right? We won’t know until, the bottom is in if they had it right. However, most of them have egg on their faces from past missed calls. Just look at the latest implosion of tech stocks, and in some cases, the bitcoin rise and fall. Did any of them call out the bond catastrophe during the past twelve months? We don’t think so,