Donald Trump has opened up a 4.3 percent lead on Joe Biden in a hypothetical presidential election matchup between the two, according to an analysis of recent polling by website Real Clear Polling (RCP). It gives the Republican frontrunner 47.3 percent of the vote, ahead of the Democratic incumbent on 43 percent.
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If his head wasn’t screwed on it would also be backwards. Go Brandon Go.
This comes despite Trump being wracked by legal troubles including a second defamation case from writer E. Jean Carroll. It concluded on Friday, with the former president ordered to pay $83.3 million in compensation and damages.
The latest RCP polling average, based on an average of multiple surveys conducted between January 3 and 24, was released on Saturday. Biden hasn’t been ahead of Trump in the polling average conducted by RCP since September 2023. Newsweek contacted representatives of Donald Trump and Joe Biden for comment by email on Saturday.
The most-recent poll included by RCP was a survey of 1,028 registered voters conducted by Ipsos for Reuters between January 22 and 24, which placed Trump on 43 percent of the vote against 38 percent for Biden. This puts Trump ahead by five points, a stark contrast to the previous Ipsos/Reuters survey, which took place from January 14 to 16 and gave Biden a one-point lead.
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Between January 21 and 23, YouGov polled 1,497 registered voters for British weekly newspaper The Economist. It put Trump on 44 percent versus 43 percent for Biden, though this was within the 2.8 percent margin of error.
A poll conducted by Harris X for news outlet The Messenger between January 17 and 21, of 3,034 registered voters, put Trump six points ahead of Biden on 53 percent versus 47 percent, with a 1.8 percent margin of error.
Previous surveys were conducted this month, by Morning Consult from January 19 to 21 and Harvard-Harris between January 17 and 18, also put Trump ahead of Biden by five and six points respectively, well above the margin of error.
On Tuesday, Trump won the Republican New Hampshire primary with 54.3 percent of the vote ahead of Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, with 43.4 percent. Eight days earlier, Trump won the first GOP presidential contest, the Iowa caucus, with 51 percent of the vote versus 21.2 percent for his nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who then dropped out and endorsed him.
Trump’s slew of electoral and polling triumphs has come despite him being embroiled in legal battles, including E. Jean Carroll’s second defamation trial, which lasted from January 16 to 26.
A jury had already concluded Trump sexually abused Carroll in a New York department store, then defamed her when she spoke out, during a separate case in May 2023 and ordered him to pay $5 million in damages. On Friday, he was instructed to pay an additional $83.3 million, with the jury concluding he had “acted maliciously, out of hatred, ill will, or spite, vindictively, or in wanton, reckless, or willful disregard for of Ms. Carroll’s rights.”
Trump has consistently denied either sexually abusing or defaming Carroll and described Friday’s judgment as “absolutely ridiculous.”
A civil-fraud case against Trump, his adult sons and The Trump Organization is also ongoing in New York, with presiding Judge Arthur Engoron having already concluded that the former president is liable for fraud; it could also see him banned from the city’s real-estate market.
In addition to his civil cases, Trump has four upcoming criminal cases related to claims he orchestrated the payment of hush money to a pornographic actress; mishandled classified documents; and broke the law attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election result, both nationwide and in the state of Georgia specifically. The 2024 Republican frontrunner has pled not guilty to all charges and has repeatedly said that the cases against him are politically motivated.
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