The Fed is Trapped

The Fed’s main policy tool for fighting inflation is to hike interest rates. This reduces the demand side of the economy by tightening credit conditions causing financial asset prices to decline which crimps investor savings and consumer demand and increases unemployment.

But raising interest rates does not stimulate commodity supplies like gold, copper, silver, nickel, lithium, cobalt, molybdenum. The core inflationary problem today metals demanded by the Green Economy. In fact, raising interest rates could have the opposite effect because it makes the cost of capital for investment in new commodity production higher.

After years of money printing and interest rate suppression, policy makers have created a historic speculative environment in financial assets. But now, the inflation genie is out of the bottle, and to restore its credibility, the Fed has no choice but to burst the bubble. At the same time, it is powerless to stop commodity inflation. To illustrate just how trapped the Fed is, it has never ended a hiking cycle with the Fed Funds Rate below CPI.

But the implied terminal rate in the Fed Funds Futures market is now just 2.9% in early 2023 while CPI is still at 8%. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, which it rarely does, CPI must drop precipitously over the next three quarters. Such is highly unlikely based on our commodity supply analysis shown above. There is a much bigger risk based on our work that inflation stays elevated, and the Fed ends up having to hike more and for longer than is currently priced in, as in all past tightening cycles.

Alternatively, there is the risk that the stock market correction continues under the existing planned increases and the Fed panics and ends its hiking cycle for the first time with real rates still in negative territory. In all cases, the market seems to be in state of delusion today with the average participant still buying the dip in overvalued tech, crypto, and fixed income assets, hoping for a return to those manias, while underestimating the risk of continued high inflation in valuable, scarce, tangible resources.

Crescat Capital

May 29, 2022 Monthly Research Letter

In 2016 the lame stream media, in a vain attempt, to convince Americans that Donald J. Trump was a Russian Plant to no avail. The public didn’t go for it. This was corruption at the highest level. Trump was more than lucky that the voters hated “Lock Her Up” so much, they stayed away in droves. But the ‘libtards’ weren’t through, they had more than an axe to grind.

During the next four years they tried everything, legal and illegal, to bring Trump’s presidency down. Impeachment, based on false information, lying Senators, planted evidence became the norm. Trump was acquitted.

But the MFR’s couldn’t accept that Trump was acquitted.  So they went to Plan B, the Mueller investigation. This was the biggest farce the world has ever seen. The Criminals weren’t investigated, but an Honest President was. Seventeen Libtard attorneys were hired to comb through all of the lies and planted documentation but not one scant of incriminating evidence was found. Mueller ended up with prairie coal all over his face.

However, the ‘tard’ playing field has not let up, they are more angry than ever. NY attorney general is still after him. The House committee has his IRS records. They can’t quit unless Trump is dead. Yes, they still have all of their shills; CNN, MSNBC, Facebook, YouTube ETC, but their Twitter machine, which went Woke the past six years, has now exposed what we already knew. What was that? Prosecutors, FBI, CIA, Secret Service, Defense Department, Department of State, Defense Intelligence Agency withheld evidence which would have turned the election upside down. In other words, exculpatory evidence was kept from the public eye.

This is still happening. However, Elon Musk’s Twitter, has brought out in an avalanche way, the corruption of our Government. Members of the Biden administration pressured Facebook, YouTube and Twitter during and after the 2020 election. They conspired with the government in covering the Hunter Biden Laptop conspiracy.

The facts will become known. The evidence presented thus far indicates Joe Biden was the Capo di  tutti capi. He and his family raked in millions of dollars by shaking down foreign governments. China, Russia, Ukraine paid Hunter for access to the Godfather.

Elon Musk vows ‘more smoking guns’ to be revealed by Twitter after Hunter Biden bombshell

We see one on a daily basis,  produced and sponsored by the Democrat Party. Any psychologist, who would have been consulted back in the 50’s and 60’s, would have come to the conclusion that the majority of them needed to be put into any asylum. Yes indeed, we are talking about the Freak Show that is the Democrat Party.

The Democrat Party’s shibboleth of today is,  “ladies and gentlemen, pervs, child molesters, thieves of all ages, welcome to the Big Top, where you will witness the Greatest Freak Show on Earth.

Starring in order:

Brinton, pictured with transgender Adm. Rachel Levine, allegedly took the $2,325 Vera Bradley suitcase from baggage claim at Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport back on Sept. 16.

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Supporters of the U.S. attend the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group B match between Iran and the U.S. at the Al-Thumama Stadium in Doha Nov. 29, 2022.  (Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images)

WORLD CUP 2022: CHRISTIAN PULISIC GETS PRAISE FROM US TEAMMATES FOR PUTTING BODY ON LINE FOR GAME-WINNING GOAL

Ali Safavi, a member of the foreign affairs committee of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran, released the following statement:

“The jubilant reaction across Iran over the regime soccer team’s defeat tonight reflects first and foremost the degree to which the Iranian people loath and detest the ruling mullahs and want to see it overthrown. They knew that the regime was trying to exploit the presence of its team in the World Cup to overshadow the ruthless manner with which it has cracked down on the nationwide uprising, which has left 660 protesters, including at least 60 children, dead and 30,000 (arrested). At no time in its 43-year rule, has the regime been so isolated in the eyes of the Iranian people who are determined as ever to topple it.”

The United States also roiled Iran over the weekend when the U.S. Soccer Federation briefly scrubbed the Islamic Republic emblem from its flag in a social media post in support of the protesters. Iran called for the U.S. to be banned from the tournament after the demonstration.

Fox News’ Benjamin Weinthal and Ryan Gaydos contributed to this report.

VOTE HERSCHEL WALKER ON DECEMBER 6

Republicans want Brian Kemp’s mojo to rub off on Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff, but hurdles remain as the governor uses his political operation to boost the GOP

• Brian Kemp has emerged as Herschel Walker’s most powerful surrogate in the Georgia Senate runoff.
• Kemp, who won reelection as governor, didn’t campaign with Walker during the general election race.
• Republicans are working intently to win over the November voters who backed Kemp but not Walker.
• Last Saturday, Georgia Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker hugged newly-reelected Gov. Brian Kemp at a campaign rally outside a suburban Atlanta firearms store.

  This normally wouldn’t be a notable act in GOP politics, but the Georgia Senate runoff election is not a normal contest.

  Walker did not run a conventional general election race, as he didn’t appear on the campaign trail alongside Kemp — by far the most influential Republican in the state — until last week.

  The GOP won virtually every statewide election in Georgia earlier this month, except for Walker, who in his race against Sen. Raphael Warnock captured 48.5% of the vote compared to the incumbent Democratic lawmaker’s 49.4%, which forced the runoff election as no candidate hit the requisite 50% of the vote needed for an outright victory.

RNOCK EVICTS POOR PEOPLE FROM RENTAL APARTMENT – CLEARLY A CRIMINAL MAN OF THE CLOTH

DONATE HERE TO HERSCHEL WALKER 

Herschel Junior Walker is an American former football running back who played in the National Football League for 12 seasons. He is the Republican nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia. Walker played college football at the University of Georgia, where he won the Heisman Trophy as a junior. Wikipedia

DEMOCRATS

‘Vicious and Venomous’: Raphael Warnock Says Critics of His Church’s Evictions Are Attacking Jesus

Democrat lashes out as church’s eviction scandal takes center stage in runoff battle with Herschel Walker.

The NBTP declares that “Warnock is running a Criminal Enterprise while cloaked in the Cloth of God.”

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D., Ga.) on Sunday said people who criticize his church for evicting residents from its low-income apartment building “attack the church of Jesus Christ” and are motivated by the “rulers of the darkness of this world.”

Warnock has come under fire following a Washington Free Beacon report that the Ebenezer Baptist Church, where he serves as senior pastor, owns an apartment building that moved to evict residents during the pandemic for as little as $28.55 in past-due rent. Warnock on Sunday alluded to the criticisms while delivering a sermon at Ebenezer, telling the congregation he was “troubled by the folk who have the nerve and the unmitigated audacity to attack the church,” which he called “the spiritual home of Martin Luther King Jr., America’s freedom church.”

Warnock did not disclose the identity of his foes, or the nature of their attacks. But his comments came just two days after the Free Beacon reported that the Georgia secretary of state is weighing whether to file a formal subpoena against a charity controlled by Warnock’s church for failing to cooperate with an inquiry into its charity registration. Walker’s Republican opponent, Herschel Walker, on Thursday launched the “Evict Warnock Bus Tour” ahead of Georgia’s Dec. 6 runoff election.

Warnock dodged questions about the evictions throughout October, but on Sunday, while he preached at his church, the Democrat suggested something more nefarious was at play.

“We wrestle not against flesh and blood but against powers and principalities, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against the spiritual wickedness in high places that creates hellish situations, and then cause a lot of folk to bite one another,” Warnock said on Sunday. “They attach themselves, even in church. Sometimes especially in church. They poison the warmth of the fellowship with vicious and venomous words. Vicious. And Venomous. Words. Lying. And backbiting.”

Ebenezer Building Foundation is a 501(c)(3) charity that in its IRS Form 990 filings delegates all management duties to Ebenezer Baptist Church, shares the same address as the church, and identifies Warnock as its principal officer. Ebenezer Building Foundation holds a 99 percent stake in Columbia Tower through a shell company called MLK Village Corporation, which also shares the same address as the church and is led by the same three officers as the charity.

“Accordingly, Ebenezer should have disclosed Columbia Residential as a for-profit-related entity … as a ‘related organization’ because it is, in effect, its ‘Subsidiary,’” the NLPC said in its complaint.

They have called him every name in the book but Herschel Walker has withstood the onslaught from the Libtards.

A VOTE FOR WARNOCK  IS A VOTE FOR LOUIS FARRAKHAN

“BRING IT ON” SLIME DOGS. YOU WANT BLOOD, WE WILL BRING YOU BLOOD”

Georgia is at a crossroads,  are they to vote for a reactionary panderer to Muslim Extremists. Louis Farrakhan has now given his blessing to Warnock, a progressive socialists ever to run on the face of the earth, worse than the devil himself. 

Raphael Warnock hosted Jeremiah Wright as guest preacher in 2014

Flyer advertised Wright’s appearance at Ebenezer Baptist Church on Sept. 10, 2014

“Not God bless America; God damn America,” Wright said at the time. “That’s in the Bible, for killing innocent people. God damn America, for treating her citizens as less than human. God damn America as long as she tries to act like she is God and she is supreme.”

“Not only did Raphael Warnock praise Jeremiah Wright’s ‘God Damn America’ sermon, he thought it was so great that he invited him to Ebenezer Baptist to deliver it. Does Georgia really want a U.S. senator who thinks God should damn America?”

Why this race is important; although we can’t win the Senate now, but in two years when 22 Democrat Senators are up for reelection, one Republican Senator will make a huge difference. 

We cannot let the socialist drudges of the earth dictate in a despotic fashion what we can or cannot do. Autocratic socialism (aka tyranny) has gained hold here in the United States.

We lost the last election, not because of Trump, but because the candidates who got ass whipped were weaklings without the backbone needed to swing the voters our way.

They did not stand up for what is right, but bowed, like weak branches of a tree during a windstorm, to the socialist left. Stronger candidates were embraced. To win, we must have Venom in our blood. We must strike when the opportunity arises. This was not done. 

The post election analysis interpreted the results wrong, they claimed that it was Trump who turned voters against the Right. Nothing can be further from the truth. What actually happened was the breath of the liberal pocket book. They targeted races that were in their grasp; this is a learning experience for the Republicans. They must pour money into the races that are winnable; this was not done. The Bursars kept a tight lid on fringe candidates, like Boebert.

The end result, she one by a handful of votes. If Republican money poured into here coffers, this would have been a landslide victory. Boebert is the AOC of the Republican Party, a lightning rod.

Get with McCarthy, get with McConnell.  What is noteworthy about prelection polls, especially in races where Republicans have no chance to victory, they were wrong.  We pulled major upsets, for instance,  Sean Maloney’s loss to his Republican challenger, Mike Lawler, in the midterm elections.

Maloney had spent the election cycle using funds and Washington knowhow to shore up vulnerable Democrats across the country and then later on had to rush back to his own district for frantic campaigning when it emerged that he, too, was suddenly vulnerable. But to no avail – he lost, by less than 1%.

These critical races are a must win. How do you up the turnout? Play the same game the liberals do.  Conservative billionaires must step up by donating their money into winnable campaigns. Conservative Republicans can win if they have the right message.

Blast social media and Fake News with the opponents positions on global hegemony, freeing convicts, allowing boys in girls bathrooms, spending money we don’t have, inflation eating their free lunch. We need to get our message through to the Populus.  The likes of Soros and Zuckerberg spent a whopping $100mm funding Democrat PAC’s and candidates.   

Call out the opponents who press Critical Race Theory teachings in schools. Pulverize their definition of family. For instance, having no father as a role model is ubiquitous in many communities, therefore, children don’t know right form wrong. This must stop, fathers must be held accountable. Target education reform by allowing vouchers nationwide. This will take away the union power of the NEA and others. Currently, students in inner city middle school score 40% or less in math compared to age groups in Republican run cities whose test scores are above 80%.

Target those who want to defund the police. Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, New York, St. Louis are all Dumpster Fires. Killings go on daily without any policing.

WE HAVE THE MESSAGE, GET OUR MESSAGE OUT THERE BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.

We here in the United States celebrate today and give thanks for our plenty, we also take time out to thank those who made this day in time possible. The first settlers brought with them the seed that warmly sprouted and eventually gave birth to the United States of America; land of the free and home of the brave. Landing of the Pilgrims at Plymouth Rock.

Yes there are those naysayers out there, there always will be, but if it wasn’t  for our forbearers hundreds of millions worldwide would not see this day. While others live in squalor we live in plenty; a success story if there ever was one. America has opened its arms in time of need to the hungry who sought a better life, working hard to provide the opportunities for their offspring and today they take solace in their success.

Although others believe that we can do more to provide the basics to the less fortunate, we say to them, look to Africa and India and they will come to understand that your basic is their oyster Rockefeller. They should be thankful for what they have and not taunt those who have sacrificed their lives to give them a better one.

We wish you good tidings during the holiday season.  God bless you and the United States of America

WHY?

ENEMY NUMBER 2, FATHER ENEMY NUMBER 1.

The Republicans better wake up because the runway is slipping away faster than a man trying to ascend a metal pole coated with Vaseline. While taking the house on November 8 is a good start, but only a start. So what will be the result of all of the planned hearings? From our vantage point, ZILCH, NADA, ZERO. Why? Because the House is all Visual. In reality they have no power to prosecute.

The Attorney General, a VIOLENT SOCIALIST, akin to the Stasi, the Third Reich, and better yet, Uncle Joe’s purge is the jailer. Until the Republicans understand that, we are on a road political purgatory. Three sleazes have been dismissed from committees for show. But the real CRIMINALS lie in Washington; Joe Biden is the Capo di Tutti capi.

As time goes on, the FAKE news media will continue to cover-up the Crimes of this administration. There are Chinese cohorts, outright thieves, seditionists, felons and those who have committed treason. Yes Treason. However, nothing is being done and nothing will. Look back, what happened to Clinton, the FBI personnel who colluded with her, Mueller, Wray, Comey. And there are judges, who are more liberal than Marks, Lenin, not to mention the bureaucracy.

BOTTOM LINE: WAKE UP AMERICA